This offseason, it seems highly likely that we will see a total reset of the wide receiver market. While the crop of free agent wideouts did not necessarily include any of the true top-10 players at the position, there are several extension-eligible players included in that group. Each of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase is widely considered to be among the small handful of best receivers in the NFL, and they can (and should) all get paid this offseason.
Another player who could be thought of perhaps just as highly as those players if only his team’s passing offense was a higher-volume one, and if his team didn’t also have elite threats at running back, tight end, and the other receiver spot, is Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk is coming off a Second Team All-Pro season during which he caught 75 passes for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s now posted back-to-back 75-plus-catch, 1,000-plus-yard, seven-plus touchdown campaigns.
He didn’t command the same type of volume as the other three, but he ranked ahead of all of them in yards per route run, checking in third in the NFL at 3.06, according to TruMedia. And he’s looking to get paid this offseason as well.
“I’m trying to get what I deserve,” Aiyuk said during an appearance on the Nightcap podcast with Shannon Sharpe and Chad Ochocinco. “I feel like this season, this season playing football, I figured out who I was as a person and a player, what I bring to the table, what I bring to the locker room, what I bring to the organization. And just the value I hold when I walk in that building. People going to follow me because I’ve done it the right way since I’ve been in that building. From the first day I walked in there to when I was in there earlier this morning. I’ve done it the right way.
“If they don’t see the worth in that [makes a walking motion with hands], that’s all it is. It ain’t nothing else besides that. I can’t get into it. We got professionals working on both sides, so hopefully, we can come to a professional agreement and continue playing professional football.”
The 49ers are of course already paying Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel a bunch of money, along with Nick Bosa, Trent Williams and Fred Warner. But when a 26-year-old star wide receiver comes up for an extension, that’s the type of player you should probably try to keep. It will be fascinating to see if the 49ers agree, and where Aiyuk’s contract comes in, whether or not they do.
ORLANDO, Fla. — Saquon Barkley broke the mold for how the Philadelphia Eagles view running backs. The Eagles have not given a multi-year contract to a running back since Howie Roseman re-emerged as general manager in 2016 prior to Barkley, significantly contributing toward the devaluing of the position.
The Eagles viewed Barkley as a generational player. He is the three-down running back the franchise has sought since having these two franchise greats in the Andy Reid-era.
“I think with Saquon, one of the things we always talk about, whether it was LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook, is the value of a running back is it’s not even the word of the title ‘running back,’ Lurie said at the NFL Annual Meetings this week. “You have to be a great passing attack running back as well. For us, it’s got to be multifunctional.
“And he exhibited a very special skill set both in the running and the passing game that we think certainly can be maximized by being on a team with better skill positions, quarterback, offensive line. So, it was a strategy to go.”
Ironically, the Eagles went to two Super Bowls without putting a great emphasis on the running back. Thanks to their excellent offensive line, Philadelphia won Super Bowl LII with LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, and Corey Clement carrying the load. Blount was on a one-year contract while Ajayi was on a rookie contract and Clement was an undrafted rookie free agent. Philadelphia went to Super Bowl LVII with Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell on rookie contracts and Boston Scott on a one-year deal.
The Eagles strategy of not paying running backs worked, but Barkley was the exception. They believe Barkley is in the mold of Westbrook and McCoy, a piece to an already loaded offense with Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert at the forefront.
“People think we don’t spend on the running back position. That’s never really been the case,” Lurie said. “We would do it very carefully. LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook, those are instances of players that are really multi-purpose running backs that improve the passing attack, improve the running attack.
“And it’s, I think, Howie [Roseman] said it, it’s hard to find exceptionally talented players. If you think about it, what we pay Saquon Barkley, take another position of what that’s getting in the league and you tell me, is it better to pay Saquon that kind of money or a player at a different position that’s getting the exact same amount of money?
“That’s a decision. And Howie led the way there and felt that Saquon was the right way to spend that money.”
ORLANDO, Fla. — Jalen Hurts wasn’t the quarterback the Philadelphia Eagles were accustomed to seeing at the end of the 2023 season. Coincidentally, that’s when the Eagles lost six of their last seven games.
Questions arose regarding Hurts’ play on and off the field, searching for answers on what led to the Eagles’ collapse. Most of them were directed at the $255 million quarterback, who went 27-2 in the previous 29 games prior to the losing skid.
What do the Eagles want to change regarding Hurts? The answer is something Hurts knows how to do very well.
“The thing with Jalen, I want him to be authentic,” Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie said at the NFL Annual League Meeting on Tuesday. “That’s what he is. It’s the worst thing to be 24, 25 and to try to be something. Be authentic as he is. He’s an excellent, excellent example.”
Hurts was plagued by turnovers last season, committing 20 in the 17 regular-season games (15 interceptions, five fumbles lost). The uncharacteristic giveaways affected his play, as Hurts completed 61.1% of his passes for 1,161 yards with five touchdowns to five interceptions for a 77.6 passer rating in the final six games.
Hurts also had 195 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns (4.5 yards per carry), but those aren’t typical Hurts numbers. A recurring knee injury may have played a role, yet Hurts’ leadership was questioned along with the play on the field.
Ironically, that wasn’t a problem when the Eagles were 10-1. Hurts remained the same through and through.
“You know there’s times where stoicism, when we were 10-1 people said, oh, it’s because of Jalen’s stoicism and calm under the storm that we’re 10-1 in all those close games,” Lurie said. “And then lose a few, and, ah, maybe he’s not as demonstrative or whatever.”
The Eagles want Hurts to be himself. A pretty easy request for someone who knows how to handle those things.
“I love the way Jalen is,” Lurie said. “I think he has his own style. … Every quarterback goes through ebbs and flows in their career, and so there were so many ups, and then we had a difficult final five or six games of the year.
“He will adjust to that and lead the way because he’s really respected for being who he is, and that’s — you have a 25-year-old player, I think you want to reinforce who they are, not try to mold them into somebody they’re not. He’s an exceptional leader.”
The Jacksonville Jaguars are keeping one of their key defenders in town for a while longer. The Jaguars signed linebacker Foye Oluokun to a three-year contract extension, the team announced on Friday.
According to multiple reports, the deal tacks on $30 million in new money and results in Oluokun playing on what is now essentially a four-year, $45 million contract with $22.5 million in guarantees. The new contract keeps Oluokun among the top 10 highest-paid players at his position moving forward, with only Roquan Smith, Fred Warner, Tremaine Edmunds, Matt Milano and Patrick Queen making more in terms of average annual value.
Oluokun signed a three-year, $45 million contract with the Jaguars in 2022, and has led the team in tackles in each of his two seasons. He actually led the entire NFL in both 2021 (192) and 2022 (184), and he led the NFL in solo tackles in both 2022 (128) and 2023 (111). Oluokun will turn 29 later this summer, and will now be a fixture in Jacksonville’s defense into his early 30s. He has been incredibly durable throughout his NFL career, missing only one game and playing in 66 consecutive contests including the playoffs.
The Jaguars themselves are transitioning to a new defense under recently hired coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who previously coordinated or co-coordinated the Saints and Falcons defenses. Oluokun is part of a solid front seven that now includes Arik Armstead in addition to incumbent players like Josh Allen, Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and Roy Robertson-Harris. With the offense having lost Calvin Ridley in free agency, the Jags could be counting on their defense to drive their success more than they did over the past two seasons.
The start of the NFL season is still more than five months away, but arguing about the NFL is a year-round sport and you’ll be able to hold some healthy debates with your closest friends over the next few weeks now that the win totals have been released for all 32 teams.
The oddsmakers at BetMGM have released their over/under win totals for the 2024 season and in news that probably won’t surprise you, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are tied for the highest projected win total in the NFL at 11.5.
Here are a few nuggets from all the win totals.
Oddsmakers love America’s team. There are a total of eight teams that have a double-digit win total and of those eight, seven of them have played in at least one conference title game since 2020. The only team on the list that hasn’t is the Cowboys, who have a win total of 10.5. No respect for several 2023 playoff teams. There are four playoff teams from last season who have an over/under lower than nine and those four teams are the Browns (8.5), Rams (8.5), Steelers (7.5) and Buccaneers (7.5). The Steelers and Browns play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, so it’s somewhat understandable that their win totals are low. On the Rams’ end, they just lost their best defensive player (Aaron Donald) to retirement, so that probably doesn’t help things. As for the Buccaneers, the oddsmakers seem to think that Tampa Bay will be taking a small step back. Lowest win total: Panthers. With an unproven quarterback in Bryce Young and a new coaching staff in place, it’s not a huge surprise that the oddsmakers have no faith in the Panthers, who have the lowest win total in the NFL this year at 4.5. Here’s a look at the over/under win totals for all 32 teams.
Now that we have the totals, it’s time to figure where the oddsmakers went wrong, so I’m going to give you the five bets that I like the most right now.
Steelers over 7.5 (-165) 2023 record: 10-7
Mike Tomlin has been the Steelers coach since 2007 and in the 17 seasons since then, he has a NEVER had a losing record, so I’m not going to bet against him now. Tomlin managed to get the Steelers to 10 wins last season, which was a minor miracle considering the team’s quarterback situation. Russell Wilson might not be the Russell Wilson of old anymore, but he still feels like an upgrade over anything Pittsburgh had at QB last year.
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Derek Carr didn’t look completely comfortable running the Saints offense during his first year with the team, but despite that, New Orleans still managed to win nine games. The Saints play in arguably the weakest division in the NFL and if they can go 4-2 in the NFC South like they did last season, that would get them halfway to hitting their over. The Saints also have the easiest strength of schedule in 2024 based on their opponents’ winning percentage from 2023.
Rams over 8.5 (-125) 2023 record: 10-7
The loss of Aaron Donald will sting on defense, but the Rams could make up for that by fielding one of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL. With new stars like Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, it felt like coach Sean McVay was just starting to scratch the surface of what his team can do on offense. If Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, there’s no reason this team can’t win 10 games for the second straight season.
Falcons under 9.5 (+110) 2023 record: 7-10
No NFC South team has hit the double-digit win mark over the past two seasons and I don’t expect that to change this year. Yes, the Falcons did add Kirk Cousins, but remember, he’s coming off a torn Achilles, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he looks a little rusty coming out of the gate to start the 2024 season. Although I have the Falcons hitting the under here, that doesn’t mean they can’t make the playoffs. This team could easily win the NFC South with a 9-8 record like the Buccaneers did in 20223.
Eagles under 10.5 (-120) 2023 record: 11-6
The Eagle totally collapsed down the stretch last season, going 1-6 in their final seven games, including their wild-card playoff loss to the Buccaneers. The addition of Saquon Barkley definitely makes this team better, but the schedule won’t be easy. In 2024, the Eagles will play 11 of their 17 games against teams that finished with a winning record last season and that includes playing every team in the AFC North. The retirement of Jason Kelce is also a loss that might not be easy to bounce back from.
Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I have some good news and some bad news to start off today’s newsletter. The bad news is that you won’t be hearing from me for the next month because I’ll be going on an ayahuasca retreat in South America with Aaron Rodgers. Actually, only half of that is true. I won’t be going to South America with Aaron Rodgers, but I will be going on a month-long hiatus from writing the newsletter.
Since the NFL Draft is right around the corner, the Pick Six newsletter is going all draft all the time starting Monday, and that is not an April Fools. From April 1 through the end of the month, this will be the “With the First Pick” newsletter, and it will be written by CBSSports.com draft guru Chris Trapasso.
If you’re not familiar with Chris, I highly suggest you follow him on Twitter by clicking here. Starting next week, you’ll be getting daily mock drafts, updated big boards and an in-depth look at every pro day that’s happening around the country.
Before the draft takeover starts, though, we have a newsletter to get to today, so let’s get to it.
As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Actually, you don’t even have to tell all of your friends; just tell two of your friends and I’ll be happy. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
Today’s show: Possible landing spots for Dak Prescott usatsi-dak-prescott-cowboys.jpg Cowboys QB Dak Prescott USATSI With Dak Prescott heading into the final year of his contract, there’s a very real possibility that 2024 could be his final season in Dallas. With Dak’s future up in the air, we decided to break down some possible landing spots for him on today’s episode of the Pick Six Podcast.
For today’s show, Will Brinson, Tyler Sullivan and I all came up with one landing spot for Dak, and we weren’t allowed to pick the Cowboys.
Brinson: Broncos. Brinson thinks Prescott would be a perfect fit with Sean Payton. Also, if the Broncos are going to go after Dak, that means they don’t have to get things figured out at quarterback just yet. They could just let Jarrett Stidham have the starting job in 2024 and then try to land Prescott next offseason. Sullivan: Seahawks. Geno Smith’s contract runs through the 2025 season, but he has a very manageable $12.5 million dead cap hit after the 2024 season, which means it would be very easy for Seattle to move on. If the Seahawks are ready to make a change at quarterback, Prescott would be a solid option. Breech: Giants. I’m a fan of chaos, and Dak going to the Giants would be chaos. If the Cowboys let him hit free agency and then he turns around and signs with a division rival, Jerry Jones would never forgive him. The Giants do have Daniel Jones, but they don’t seem to have any faith in him. And if they don’t draft a QB this year, it’s certainly conceivable they could be in the market to sign one next offseason, and Prescott could make some sense. We actually had an unusually busy show today. Not only did we talk about Prescott, but we also broke down the new kickoff rule after having several days to digest it also talked about who the Eagles may play in Brazil (spoiler alert: It will be the Browns or Packers).
If you want to hear everything we talked about, then be sure to click here so you can listen to today’s episode. You can also watch today’s show on YouTube by clicking here.
Projected win totals for all 32 teams: Chiefs, Ravens and 49ers lead the pack The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have released their win totals for the 2024 NFL season, and in news that probably won’t surprise you, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are tied for the highest projected win total in the NFL. The Chiefs have an over/under of 11.5 wins, which is tied with the Ravens and the 49ers for the highest number in the league.
Here are a few nuggets from all the win totals (via BetMGM):
Oddsmakers love America’s team. There are a total of eight teams that have double-digit win totals, and of those eight, seven of them have played in at least one conference title game since 2020. The only team on the list that hasn’t is the Cowboys, who have a win total of 10.5. No respect for several 2023 playoff teams. There are four playoff teams from last season who have an over/under lower than 9, and those four teams are the Browns (8.5), Rams (8.5), Steelers (7.5) and Buccaneers (7.5). The Steelers and Browns play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL, so it’s somewhat understandable that their win totals are low. On the Rams’ end, they just lost their best defensive player (Aaron Donald) to retirement, so that probably doesn’t help things. As for the Buccaneers, the oddsmakers seem to think Tampa Bay will take a small step back. Lowest win total: Panthers. With an unproven quarterback in Bryce Young and a new coaching staff in place, it’s not a huge surprise that the oddsmakers have no faith in the Panthers, who have the lowest win total in the NFL this year at 4.5. Here are the win totals for all 32 teams from highest to lowest (win totals via BetMGM): Chiefs (11.5), Ravens (11.5), 49ers (11.5), Eagles (10.5), Cowboys (10.5), Bills (10.5), Bengals (10.5), Lions (10.5), Falcons (9.5), Packers (9.5), Texans (9.5), Dolphins (9.5), Jets (9.5), Chargers (8.5), Bears (8.5), Browns (8.5), Colts (8.5), Jaguars (8.5), Rams (8.5), Saints (7.5), Steelers (7.5), Seahawks (7.5), Buccaneers (7.5), Raiders (6.5), Cardinals (6.5), Vikings (6.5), Giants (6.5), Titans (6.5), Commanders (6.5), Patriots (5.5), Broncos (5.5), Panthers (4.5).
How the Cowboys can save their offseason micah-parsons-usatsi-cbs.jpg Cowboys LB Micah Parsons USATSI After Jerry Jones said the Cowboys would be going “all-in” for 2024, most reasonable people took that to mean that he might actually look to improve his roster this offseason. Instead, the Cowboys have done mostly nothing. They stayed out of free agency, lost multiple starters, and haven’t even been able to get any contract extensions done with the key players who are already on the roster.
So how can the Cowboys salvage their offseason? Garrett Podell came up with a few ways, and we’re going to check them out below:
Re-sign their stars to long-term extensions now before their market value goes up. “In order for the Cowboys to avoid a total rebuild, something the 81-year-old Jones likely doesn’t have the patience for, they need to keep their three best players for the long haul. Signing their All-Pro trio of Dak Prescott, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (2023 All-Pro) and edge rusher Micah Parsons (three-time All-Pro, 2023 second-team All-Pro) to long-term extensions of at least four or five years is a must.”
Make a small free agency push after June 1 cap space opens up. “Perhaps once wide receiver Michael Gallup’s June 1 releases processes, Dallas could re-sign 33-year-old, five-time Pro Bowl cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore’s presence in Dallas in 2023 was pivotal with Pro Bowl corner Trevon Diggs going down with a torn ACL in Week 3. Gilmore’s 60.3 passer rating against as the primary defender in coverage ranked as the ninth-best in the NFL among the 39 players with 80 or more passes thrown their way.”
Select a top-tier offensive lineman with the 24th overall pick. “Georgia’s Amarius Mims (6-foot-7 and 340 pounds), Washington’s Troy Fautanu (6-foot-4 and 317 pounds) or Arizona’s Jordan Morgan (6-foot-3, 325 pounds) would all be solid selections for offensive tackle. … That being said, should Jerry Jones deem Tyler Smith to be a left tackle going forward, Jackson Powers-Johnson, an interior offensive lineman out of Oregon, could make sense with the 24th overall pick.” Garrett came up with five ways to help the Cowboys, and if you want to check out his full list, you can do that here.
‘Hard Knocks’ set to undergo some big changes The NFL’s 32 owners quietly voted to make some major changes to “Hard Knocks” going forward, which means the show is going to have a slightly different look when it returns this season.
Over the past few years, the NFL has had some trouble finding a team that’s willing to be on the show, so the owners voted to change the criteria. Under the new rules, a team doesn’t have to be on the show if ANY of the three rules below applies to them (via Sports Business Journal):
They have a first-year head coach in place. They’re participating in the in-season show during the upcoming year or the following season. They have appeared on “Hard Knocks” in the past eight years. Under the old rules, a team could turn down “Hard Knocks” if it had made the playoffs at any point over the past two seasons, but that rule has been tossed out. Also, any team that had appeared on “Hard Knocks” in the past 10 years was also able to avoid being on the show under the old rules, but that number has now been reduced down to eight years. (Note: According to the Sports Business Journal, the playoff rule will be in effect for one more season, so teams that made the playoffs in 2023 can refuse to do the 2024 preseason version of the show.)
As if that’s not enough, there will be an even bigger change involving the IN-SEASON version of the show.
“Hard Knocks” in-season adding more teams. The show will now follow an ENTIRE division for the in-season version of the show, which means there will be four teams being featured this year. The in-season version of “Hard Knocks” started in 2021, and it has featured three teams since then with the Cardinals, Colts and Dolphins all making an appearance. The show probably causes somewhat of a disruption for the team that’s on it during the regular season, so the NFL probably figured that no one would gain an advantage if the league put an entire division on the show. What all this means is that a total of five teams will be on “Hard Knocks” every season going forward. During today’s episode of the Pick Six Podcast, we actually debated which division we’d like to see featured this year, and I went with the AFC North.
UFL set to kick off this weekend: Here’s what you need to know gcsfmsgw4aa8nqi-1-1.jpg United Football League I don’t think I’ve mentioned the UFL a single time this year, but that’s going to change today. With the new league kicking off for the first time this weekend, we’re going to cover a few things that you need know, starting with the obvious…
What is the UFL? The United Football League (UFL) is the league that was created after the USFL and XFL merged last year. There are a total of eight teams in the league, and all eight teams will be playing a 10-game schedule. The league consists of four teams that came over from the USFL (Birmingham Stallions, Houston Roughnecks, Memphis Showboats and Michigan Panthers) and four teams that came over from the XFL (Arlington Renegades, DC Defenders, San Antonio Brahmas and St. Louis Battlehawks). Like the NFL, the UFL has two conferences: the XFL conference and the USFL conference. UFL games will be airing on television. The UFL has a solid television plan in place, which isn’t usually the case when it comes to these spring leagues. The action will be airing on Fox, ESPN, ABC and ESPN2. The regular season will run March 30 thru June 2. UFL’s craziest rule. Although the NFL’s new kickoff rule was inspired by the XFL, the new UFL won’t be using the XFL’s kickoff rule. Instead, the new league will be sticking to a more standard kickoff. That being said, the UFL will be using a fourth-and-12 rule that can be used instead of an onside kick. If a team is tied or trailing in the fourth quarter, it can attempt a fourth-and-12 play from its own 28-yard line instead of trying an onside kick. If it converts the first down, it gets to keep the ball. If you’re looking for a reason to watch, CBSSports.com’s Bryan DeArdo came up with a list of 10 players you’ve probably heard of who will be playing in the league. Let’s take a look at five of the guys on his list:
Battlehawks QB AJ McCarron Battlehawks WR Hakeem Butler Stallions QB Matt Corral Stallions WR Amari Rodgers Roughnecks LB Reuben Foster You can check out DeArdo’s full list here.
The first game of the year will feature the XFL champion Renegades against the USFL champion Stallions in a match-up that will kickoff on Fox at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday. You can see the full season schedule for all 40 games here. The season starts tomorrow and will run until June 16 when the UFL title game is played.
Extra points: Jets owner calls out NFL Media It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
Jets owner not happy with NFL Network. Woody Johnson ripped NFL Media on Thursday for what he claims was a false report. The league’s media arm had suggested that Johnson got in a “heated argument” with head coach Robert Saleh at the Annual League Meeting on Sunday. You can check out the full details of this interesting story here. Jaguars linebacker lands new four-year contact. Foye Oluokun was headed into the final year of his contract, but not anymore after he scored a huge new deal on Friday. Oluokun is getting a four-year, $45 million deal that includes $22.5 million in guaranteed money. The linebacker has led the Jags in tackles in each of his two seasons with the team. Chiefs sign Rugby star. Louis Rees-Zammit, one of the top rugby stars in Europe, has signed with the Chiefs. The 23-year-old announced in January that he was going to try and make it in the NFL and now is the perfect time to do it. With the NFL’s new kickoff rule in place, Rees-Zammit could possibly make the team as a returner. Even if Rees-Zammit isn’t NFL ready, the Chiefs can still hold on to him. Any team with an international player gets a roster exemption for training camp. The NFL also allows one extra practice squad spot for international players, so the Chiefs could hold on to him for the entire season without it impacting their roster. You can read more about his signing here. Brandon Aiyuk breaks silence on contract rumors. The 49ers have insisted that they don’t plan on trading Aiyuk, but if they’re going to keep him, they’re going to have to pay him. “I’m trying to get what I deserve,” Aiyuk said during an appearance on the Nightcap podcast with Shannon Sharpe and Chad Ochocinco. That sounds like a guy who won’t be taking any sort of discount on his next contract. You can read his full comments here. LSU coach may have leaked Jayden Daniel’s draft destination. Brian Kelly made a very interesting comment this week during an interview about Jayden Daniels. While describing the quarterbacks abilities, Kelly added that Daniels is going to make plays “for Washington.” DOES HE KNOW SOMETHING WE DON’T KNOW? The Commanders were at Daniels’ Pro Day this week, and it’s possible they let Kelly know that they were very interested in the LSU QB. Look, you should never believe anything you hear during draft season, but it was definitely an interesting comment that you can hear for yourself here. Bill Belichick set to write a book. It looks like the former Patriots head coach has found a way to pass his time during unemployment. According to The Athletic, Belichick is planning to write a book. It’s not yet clear what the book will be about — his time with the Patriots or football strategy or something else entirely — but no matter what it is, I’ll probably end up reading it.
